Lance Stroll took the primary pole place of his profession throughout qualifying for the Turkish Grand Prix, however for almost all of the moist session it seemed like Max Verstappen had the highest spot wrapped up. This is what went fallacious for the Dutchman…

Pink Bull’s blunder

Max Verstappen completed the second session of qualifying 1.9s away from the remainder of the sector. Mercedes was nowhere, his teammate Alex Albon was his closest competitor however confirmed no indicators of difficult him and Lance Stroll was an enormous three seconds off the tempo in fourth place. As Q3 bought underway, it appeared pole place was Verstappen’s for the taking.

So what went fallacious?

Verstappen had discovered his benefit in Q1 and Q2 utilizing the acute moist tyres, however in Q3 the intermediates got here into play. Components of the observe had been beginning to present indicators of a drying line and that meant the bigger contact patch of the intermediates was capable of finding grip on the observe with out aquaplaning.

However on the very begin of Q3, it was nonetheless the crossover level between the acute wets and the intermediates. Selecting the intermediates was nonetheless an enormous gamble and the one two drivers who tried it from the beginning had been Racing Level’s Sergio Perez and Renault’s Esteban Ocon. To underline what a marginal name it was, Perez set the quickest time with the assistance of the intermediates whereas Ocon initially set the slowest time and opted to modify again to the security of the wets.

Seeing his teammate 1.8s away from him utilizing the intermediates, Stroll radioed his pits to ask for a similar tyres. Pink Bull additionally noticed the potential of the intermediates, however Verstappen was on a brand new quickest lap as he was approaching the pits — a lap able to beating Perez’s present quickest time on the inters — making the choice more durable.

Pink Bull pulled him into the pits regardless, and whereas that will have seemed like a mistake as his sector instances had been the quickest at that second, they’d not have been aggressive sufficient to compete with the eventual high 4 instances. Bringing Verstappen in for intermediates was the precise alternative as issues transpired, though the precise timing of when and the place he rejoined didn’t assist his scenario.

As he returned to the observe on intermediates, Verstappen rejoined behind Kimi Raikkonen’s slower Alfa Romeo, which meant he struggled to get the warmth into the tyres that was so essential to lap time. Nonetheless, the primary sector of his quickest lap on the finish of the session was a match for Stroll’s and it was solely when had a snap of oversteer at Flip 7 that he began to fall again.

“We struggled to show the inters on in comparison with the acute and you’ll see that these tyres are fairly difficult,” workforce principal Christian Horner mentioned after the session. “Max had seemed supreme in Q1 and Q2 after which bought caught behind Kimi on a few laps that did not permit him to show these tyres on and that ultimate lap he had a snap [of oversteer] and misplaced about 0.6s at Flip 7.

“However when you have not bought the preparation and momentum via the quicker corners, notably with the soiled air from Kimi, it was tough for him to generate that temperature, and sadly the snap at Flip 7 — he was 0.6s quicker at that time — put him again to zero, so then needed to do it once more.”

The important thing was being on the precise tyres and having them on the proper temperature when the observe situations had been at their finest on the finish of the session. Stroll, Verstappen and Perez had been all on the precise tyres within the closing moments of Q3, however Stroll was the one a type of three who nailed a clear lap when it mattered. Even with the later change to intermediates and the site visitors, Verstappen had the potential to take pole however finally missed out together with his mistake at Flip 7.

Credit score the place it is due

Stroll’s lap was spectacular no matter whether or not Verstappen had the potential to beat it. The Racing Level has not been a match for the Pink Bull all yr, but in a number of the most tough situations all yr the Canadian was the one who produced a fast, clear lap worthy of pole place.

He did so whereas lifting for yellow flags at Flip 7 the place his extra skilled teammate, who had been on a quicker lap up till that time, had spun. The stewards investigated whether or not Stroll had ignored the yellows, however telemetry and onboard footage clearly confirmed him lifting off the throttle and coasting via the nook – sufficient for the stewards to agree he had proven warning as his teammate sat within the run off space.

Stroll nonetheless set private finest mini sectors at that a part of the observe, which is normally used as a barometer as as to if a driver ignored yellow flags, however as a result of the situations had been bettering a lot on the finish of the session, his quicker sector instances had been deemed to be a results of the bettering observe situations quite than him pushing on whatever the yellows. Even with the raise, he nonetheless had a 0.290s benefit over Verstappen on the identical tyres in the identical situations.

Whichever manner you chop it, it was an ideal qualifying lap.

What occurred to Hamilton and Mercedes?

For the primary time this yr, Mercedes did not safe pole place. It took a mixture of rain, a brand new observe floor and a few spectacular laps from rival drivers, however Saturday’s session lastly proved the mighty W11 is beatable over a single lap.

The important thing was tyre temperature, and the Mercedes drivers merely could not generate sufficient of it within the situations. Whether or not it was a setup subject or a basic weak spot within the automotive wasn’t completely clear on Saturday night, however the result’s that Lewis Hamilton will begin sixth and Valtteri Bottas ninth. The workforce believes it could have set a quicker time if it had persevered on the acute moist tyres quite than switching to the intermediates (as a result of it was more durable to generate temperature within the intermediates) however it nonetheless would not have been sufficient.

To be honest to Mercedes, the low grip floor at Istanbul Park is an entire outlier on F1’s 2020 calendar that will by no means have been thought of throughout the automotive’s design course of, so it is maybe no shock that the workforce struggled to tailor the W11 to the acute situations. Nevertheless, do not guess towards Hamilton and Bottas coming again via the sector in dry situations on Sunday.

Grid penalties

• Carlos Sainz – Three-place grid penalty, one penalty level on superlicence for impeding Sergio Perez in Q1.

• Lando Norris – 5-place grid penalty, three penalty factors on superlicence for failing to sluggish sufficiently below double-waved yellows in Q1.