In a System One season dominated by Mercedes, Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was an anomaly.

In a straight battle and on a monitor the place Mercedes has received each grand prix since 2014, Pink Bull not solely took pole place but additionally a convincing victory.

It was solely the workforce’s second race win this 12 months, which can not seem to be a purpose to get excited, however its timing and the way by which it was delivered may trace at a extra aggressive season subsequent 12 months.

For too lengthy F1 has seen one workforce dominate — be it Pink Bull between 2010 and 2013 or Mercedes from 2014 onwards — and the prospect of a real title battle is tantilising

However those that have watched Mercedes’ domination of the previous seven years will even recall quite a few false dawns for rival groups.

The distinction this time spherical is that the idea of this 12 months’s automotive design can be used once more in 2021 to save lots of prices.

The freeze in improvement doesn’t prolong to the automotive’s aerodynamics, which can be ruled by a brand new set of rules geared toward lowering downforce to ease the load on the tyres following quite a few failures this 12 months.

However a stable platform on the finish of 2020 ought to present a stable begin to the 2021 season, which is one thing Pink Bull’s title campaigns have been missing in recent times.

All this has led to the query of whether or not Pink Bull’s win in Abu Dhabi was an indication of issues to come back or a mere blip in Mercedes’ domination of the game…

Did Mercedes merely get it fallacious in Abu Dhabi?

In a phrase: sure.

Have a look at the qualifying ends in Abu Dhabi and it is not simply Max Verstappen’s pole place lap that stands out.

In a 12 months when Mercedes has commonly held benefits of greater than 0.7s over the remainder of the sector, Lando Norris’ McLaren was only a 0.2s off the tempo of Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton.

Whereas Norris deserves loads of credit score for a unbelievable qualifying lap, McLaren has not all of a sudden closed the hole to Mercedes to a few tenths.

A extra logical conclusion is that Mercedes slipped up and Pink Bull and McLaren took benefit.

Each Mercedes drivers complained of understeer — when the entrance tyres fail to supply the required grip to match the driving force’s steering enter — in qualifying and the race and the dearth of stability within the automotive’s set-up was a key issue.

The Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi has a diverse lap, with a quick first sector and a decent closing sector. The right set-up is a impartial one that permits the driving force to push with confidence in each and take care of the tyres.

By their very own admission, Mercedes’ engineers have been lulled right into a false sense of safety by a promising Friday follow by which the automotive appeared properly balanced.

Glad with the way in which the automotive was dealing with, a big a part of Mercedes’ monitor time on Friday night (when the situations are the closest match for qualifying and the race) was dedicated to preparations for subsequent 12 months.

Mercedes has already received each titles this 12 months, so understandably the event focus has been on 2021 for a while.

For the second follow session on Friday, Pirelli equipped every driver with a set of 2021-spec tyres, which have a special development so as to stop punctures and permit groups to run the tyres at decrease pressures.

Getting essentially the most from the brand new tyre design can be key to success in 2021, however Friday was the final likelihood to attempt the brand new development forward of the diminished variety of days of pre-season testing subsequent 12 months. Put merely, each lap on the tyres had the potential to unlock a tiny little bit of understanding and efficiency subsequent 12 months.

However someplace within the altering monitor situations between Friday and Saturday, Mercedes misplaced the thread that has stitched its 2020 title marketing campaign collectively and when qualifying rolled round on the 2020 tyres, the automotive was not working as anticipated.

“The shock got here from the truth that on Friday we regarded alright,” Mercedes chief trackside engineer Andrew Shovlin stated on Sunday evening. “We did our personal programme on the 2021 tyres and we have been eager to focus a good chunk of our effort on that.

“If we have been struggling [for performance] on Friday then we’d have stated that we would spent an excessive amount of time on these tyres, however we weren’t and we have been very fast. So to be sincere, on Friday evening we have been pretty relaxed the place we stood and the shock was on Saturday morning once we hit the monitor and we have been sluggish.

“We hadn’t modified lots, we all know that the delicate tyre is a fiddly tyre, generally we get it in a great window and generally we do not, however the entire of Saturday was a battle.

“To be sincere, I believe we did properly to get the automobiles second and third [on the grid] and inside a sniff of being on pole.”

Had Bottas discovered the 0.025s to outqualify the Pink Bull on Saturday it may have been a special story within the race, however as issues performed out Verstappen made a clear getaway from pole place and led by way of Flip 1.

The issues Mercedes skilled in qualifying then brought on additional points within the race and have been exacerbated by a Security Automobile interval on lap 10 that inspired the highest three drivers to pit on the identical lap, stripped the race of any strategic variation and compelled an extended second stint on the onerous tyres.

“This was a race the place, in case you needed to win it, you needed to be on pole,” Shovlin added. “Within the race we have been optimistic that our race tempo is often robust, our [low tyre] degradation is often robust, however because it unfolded it grew to become painfully obvious to us that we did not have the pace to problem Pink Bull and so we simply sat there and completed second and third and could not actually make their lives troublesome.

“It was a little bit of a shock coming into the race weekend. They did a great job and we are going to have a look at what we may have achieved higher. However the massive shock for us is that on Friday we in fine condition and evidently from qualifying and the race we weren’t.”

A lot was made about issues with the reliability of Mercedes’ hybrid system through the race and it is true that the engineers diminished the work load of the MGU-Ok following a sequence of failures on buyer automobiles at latest races. However the workforce estimates the lap time loss was lower than 0.1s (and solely within the race, not qualifying), that means it had little bearing on the ultimate consequence.

A part of Mercedes success in recent times has been its capacity to be taught from its errors and little question Sunday’s defeat can be analysed at size to seek out solutions.

“Essentially, immediately we did not have one of the best automotive,” Shovlin added. “We have to have a look at whether or not we may have gotten extra out of it, whether or not it was a problem with the place we positioned it by way of setup or whether or not it is one thing to do with this circuit that suited Pink Bull.

“It is one thing we do not perceive proper now and it’s one thing that can sit on the job checklist of issues for us to get caught into within the subsequent week or so.

“The entire weekend simply regarded like Pink Bull had the higher hand by a bit and for us, until we have been on pole, we have been by no means going to win this race immediately. We did not have a distinction in automotive tempo, so in a manner it was misplaced yesterday, which was an in depth battle. However immediately, until we had a automotive on pole, I believe we’d have struggled.”

Can Pink Bull make a behavior of successful?

Sunday’s consequence was the type of efficiency Pink Bull hoped to ship from the start of the season. There has at all times been a sense that this 12 months’s RB16 is a fast automotive, however unlocking that tempo constantly has been the problem.

But plainly on the Yas Marina circuit the workforce lastly hit the sweetspot for an entire race weekend.

As a lot as Mercedes struggled in Abu Dhabi, it also needs to be stated that Verstappen regarded really dominant. Had Bottas or Hamilton been in a position to push him more durable within the race there’s each likelihood he would have upped his personal tempo and had a solution.

Alex Albon, who has been extra delicate to vicious dealing with of the RB16 and struggled all 12 months, was closing on Hamilton within the closing phases, underlining the numerous benefit Pink Bull appeared to have in race trim.

“I believe we have improved the automotive considerably and understood the place these points are,” Pink Bull workforce principal Christian Horner stated. “Hopefully that may be additional addressed as we go into subsequent 12 months.

“We’d like a automotive that performs at an entire variance of circuits, which Mercedes has been superb at producing, and that is the place we have to robust subsequent 12 months. We have now received be string on all forms of circuits throughout the 23-race calendar, however I believe to take immediately’s efficiency at a circuit like this into the winter may be very encouraging.”

Seen one other manner, Pink Bull’s efficiency in Abu Dhabi was not such a giant shock. There have been glimpses of robust performances on the earlier 4 rounds and, maybe, all of the workforce wanted was Mercedes to hit a bump within the street for the truth of that efficiency to become visible.

“I believe our tempo final week in Bahrain was very robust, it is only a disgrace that we misplaced Max within the third or fourth nook,” Horner added. “He missed out on the pole by 0.05s [at the Sakhir Grand Prix] and left Bahrain feeling annoyed.

“We have simply been chipping away on the automotive and during the last third of the 12 months we made real progress. We have been unfortunate in Imola, Turkey did not go our manner, the primary Bahrain was first rate and the second Bahrain we have been unfortunate.

“After which right here in Abu Dhabi, to be the primary workforce to beat Mercedes in a straight battle at this circuit since successful it ourselves in 2013, is a superb achievement and offers the entire workforce an enormous quantity of vitality as we head into what can be a really quick winter.”

However there may be one very massive caveat to Pink Bull’s progress in latest races. In mid-October Mercedes revealed it stopped improvement of its 2020 automotive “a very long time in the past”, that means Pink Bull has been chasing a comparatively static goal.

So whereas Pink Bull has been chipping away on the hole, has Mercedes merely been engaged on a a lot larger improve focused particularly on the modifications to the aero rules for 2021?

It is clear that Mercedes and Pink Bull have taken completely different approaches to the 2020/2021 transition.

Pink Bull has continued to develop its 2020 automotive within the data that any flaws ironed out on monitor this 12 months will supply a greater platform for subsequent 12 months, whereas Mercedes — understandably content material with the efficiency of its 2020 automotive after 13 race victories from 17 races — has saved its improvement locked away in its wind tunnel and CFD programme again in Brackley.

Arguably the last word System One automotive will not be one which wins all of the races within the season, however one which makes a robust sufficient begin to the 12 months to assist you to change focus as early as potential to its predecessor.

That is to not say Pink Bull hasn’t devoted sufficient consideration to its 2021 improvement again at its base in Milton Keynes or that Mercedes hasn’t introduced any 2021 improvement components to the automotive to check this 12 months, however in case you have been to place cash on a kind of two groups taking a much bigger step over the winter, the protected wager could be Mercedes.

“The one factor I might say to that,” Horner supplied as a counter argument, “is that there’s clearly a big quantity of carryover by way of gearbox, chassis and parts of the suspension.

“A big factor of the automotive’s efficiency is aerodynamic and that may be altered for subsequent 12 months. Our philosophy has been no matter we discovered this 12 months will be carried into subsequent 12 months anyway.

“They [Mercedes] are a really robust workforce, they’ve nice power and depth and we have seen that they’ve been bringing some elements to the automotive, and naturally we anticipate them to be very robust subsequent 12 months. But when we are able to construct on this momentum, hopefully we may give them a more durable time.”

Solely time will inform however the previous seven years has taught the remainder of the F1 grid to underestimate Mercedes at their peril.