PARIS — The world’s greatest diesel engine manufacturing facility in Tremery, jap France, is present process a radical overhaul — it is switching to make electrical motors.

From lower than 10 p.c of output in 2020, electrical motor manufacturing at Tremery will double to round 180,000 in 2021. It is deliberate to achieve 900,000 a 12 months or greater than half the plant’s peak pre-pandemic output by 2025.

The shift is testomony to a automobile trade in flux. Demand for diesel automobiles has slumped since a 2015 air pollution scandal, whereas robust new EU rules, which superb automakers for exceeding emissions limits, are pushing them to make extra electrical fashions.

So, within the midst of a pandemic and with the extent of shopper demand for battery-driven automobiles nonetheless unsure, automakers from Volkswagen to Nissan are ditching diesel fashions and ramping up output of electrical drives.

“2021 goes to be a pivotal 12 months, the primary actual transition in the direction of the world of electrical fashions,” mentioned Laetitia Uzan, a consultant for the CFTC union at Tremery.

However for Tremery’s 3,000 employees, and the broader automobile trade, there may be an added complication.

Electrical motors solely have a fifth of the components of a conventional diesel engine, placing a query mark over jobs.

Uzan acknowledged a danger that fewer workers could also be wanted, however was optimistic that might occur “fairly naturally” as employees retire with out being changed.

Tremery’s proprietor Stellantis, which was created on Jan. 16 from the merger of Peugeot maker PSA and Fiat Chrysler to assist sort out the trade modifications, has mentioned it will not shut factories and can search to guard jobs.

However some trade researchers warn Europe’s automobile producers, already affected by overcapacity, must make huge cuts with a purpose to ship the investments wanted to meet up with U.S. electrical automobile pioneer Tesla.

French automobile foyer group PFA estimates 15,000 jobs linked to diesel are in danger in France, out of 400,000 employed by the trade as a complete.

IAB, a German labor analysis institute, calculates the arrival of electrical autos may threaten 100,000 jobs in Germany, or about one in eight German auto trade jobs.

The transition from diesel is especially marked in Europe, the place gross sales of diesel autos made up at the least 50 p.c of the entire as not too long ago as 2015, based on information from analysis group JATO Dynamics, far greater than in each North America and Asia.

At the very least 20 automobile fashions will not provide diesel variations in 2021, from Volkswagen’s Polo and Renault’s Scenic to Nissan’s Micra and Honda’s Civic, based on researchers IHS Markit, which says 2021 will probably be “an unprecedented 12 months” within the shift away from diesel.

In the meantime, a slew of latest electrical fashions will hit showrooms.

The Society of Motor Producers and Merchants, Britain’s automobile foyer group, expects 29 new fully-electric and 7 plug-in hybrid fashions will probably be launched within the nation this 12 months, in contrast with 26 inner combustion engine fashions – solely 14 of which may have diesel variants.

There are encouraging indicators that shopper curiosity in electrical autos is choosing up.

In September, EU registrations of electrified autos – absolutely electrical, plug-in hybrid or hybrid – overtook diesel registrations for the primary time, based on JATO information.

EU gross sales of fully-electric and plug-in hybrid autos surged 122 p.c within the first 9 months of 2020, at a time when total car gross sales fell 29 p.c because of the pandemic.

However they nonetheless solely accounted for round 8 p.c of complete gross sales, with some drivers delay by the restricted availability of charging factors and better price of many electrified fashions.

At Renault’s Cleon plant close to the northern French coast, the swap from diesel is effectively below approach, with solely half a constructing housing the meeting traces for diesel motors whereas hybrid and electrical motors are unfold over two entire buildings.

“If an worker got here again after a number of years away, they wouldn’t acknowledge the place,” mentioned Lionel Anglais, a union consultant with oversight of producing at Renault.