A return to regular gross sales remained elusive in July, however not for each model.

Trade numbers for the month fell 5.7 per cent — to 155,657 autos — in contrast with the identical month a 12 months in the past, in response to estimates by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.

In July 2020, demand was growing as pandemic lockdowns eased, which suggests stock shortages are no less than partially guilty for the July 2021 dip. Additionally, gross sales have been off almost 10 per cent from 2019.

However there have been shiny spots.

“Beneath the considerably tepid top-line quantity, it was not all doom and gloom, with some producers growing gross sales from 2020,” mentioned Andrew King, DesRosiers’ managing accomplice. “These disparities in efficiency are the true story for the month and can possible persist for the rest of the 12 months because the affect of the semiconductor shortages proceed to fluctuate tremendously by mannequin and by producer.”

Toyota seems to have weathered the storm higher than some other automaker. The corporate offered 23,845 new autos, a July document and up 19.4 per cent over the identical month a 12 months in the past. Gross sales have been additionally up 10 per cent over July 2019, nicely earlier than COVID-19.

The Canadian-made RAV4 crossover generated document July gross sales of 6,702, making it the bestselling automobile in Toyota’s lineup. The Highlander crossover’s 2,070 gross sales have been additionally a document.

Electrified autos accounted for 28 per cent of Toyota Canada’s total gross sales.

LOWEST-EVER INCENTIVES

With tight stock ranges, the typical incentive per automobile fell under $4,000 in each Might and June, mentioned Robert Karwel, senior supervisor of the automotive apply at J.D. Energy Canada. They ticked up barely in July, coming in simply barely above $4,000.

Incentives are on the lowest level since J.D. Energy started monitoring them in Canada in 2012. Because of this, Karwel mentioned, electrical autos are extra enticing as a result of they qualify for hundreds of {dollars} in authorities rebates.

Prince Edward Island, for instance, affords a $5,000 incentive that may be coupled with the federal rebate of as much as $5,000. Quebec shoppers can qualify for as much as $12,000 in EV rebates after they mix the provincial and federal applications.

“Whereas producers have backed off incentives, the governments haven’t,” Karwel mentioned.

In the meantime, Toyota’s Lexus luxurious division reported its fifth consecutive month of document gross sales: 2,608 autos. The Lexus UX, NX and RX crossovers all set July data.

‘SUPPLY-DEMAND MISMATCHES’

Nonetheless, DesRosiers mentioned in a press release that “some vendor tons resembled barren wastelands, and the business continued to battle its supply-demand mismatches.”

Scotiabank Economics mentioned demand for brand new autos stays excessive, however the stock isn’t there.

“Demand-side elements proceed to strengthen,” the monetary establishment mentioned. A few of these elements are job progress, elevated family financial savings, robust client confidence and accelerated vaccination charges.

Citing the Convention Board of Canada, Scotiabank mentioned folks imagine now is an efficient time to make a significant buy, “which bodes nicely for automobile purchases.”

“These demand drivers will possible solely gas future gross sales exercise as provide shortages persist via the summer season no less than.”

Nevertheless it additionally warned that “replenishing stock on the again of robust demand … will take time regardless of additional forecasted enhancements in manufacturing.”

Scotiabank forecasts “dampened auto gross sales exercise over the summer season and into the autumn, with pent-up demand progressively unwinding as new provide hits the market.”

Meaning it will likely be nicely into 2022 earlier than extra balanced market situations return, Rebekah Younger, Scotiabank Economics’ director of fiscal and provincial economics, mentioned in her month-to-month report.

NO CHANGE IN FORECASTS

“We keep our gross sales forecast at 1.75 million items for 2021 and have penciled in 1.95 million items for 2022,” Younger mentioned, “with each topic to appreciable uncertainties each on provide and demand elements.”

Each numbers have remained unchanged all through the primary seven months of 2021.

In the meantime, DesRosiers mentioned the seasonally adjusted annual gross sales price (SAAR) for July was 1.71 million autos, constructing on enchancment seen in June, when the quantity was 1.65 million. Nonetheless, July’s SAAR remained nicely under March’s 1.92 million.

Subaru was one other automaker that set a July document, with gross sales totaling 6,039. The corporate mentioned it was the third-highest variety of autos it has offered in any month ever.

The Crosstrek, Subaru’s compact crossover, had one other document month with 2,839 items offered, a rise of 94.6 per cent over July 2020.