SpaceX drone ship Of Course I Nonetheless Love You (OCISLY) departed Port Canaveral on January 1st, heading to sea on the primary day of the yr for SpaceX’s first launch of 2022.
With a launch manifest that’s by no means been extra jam-packed and seemingly achievable, it’s no shock that SpaceX is losing no time kicking off what may very well be its third record-breaking yr in a row. Barring delays, drone ship ASOG will arrive about 640 km (400 mi) downrange at its restoration web site – simply northeast of the Bahamas – a day or two earlier than Falcon 9’s first launch and touchdown try of the yr. Referred to as Starlink 4-5 (Group 4 Launch 5) and scheduled to raise off no sooner than (NET) 4:49 pm EST (21:49 UTC), Thursday, January sixth, it is going to be SpaceX’s thirty fourth devoted Starlink launch since Might 2019.
Maybe extra importantly, if the mission goes to plan and doesn’t have rideshare payloads, SpaceX will begin 2022 having simply launched its 1997th Starlink satellite tv for pc, together with two prototypes that got here to be generally known as Tintin A and B and kicked off the constellation’s in-space {hardware} testing section in February 2018. Excluding all prototypes, Starlink 4-5 will mark the launch of greater than 1900 (1922) nominally operational Starlink satellites.
Assuming ~90% of Starlink 4-5 satellites attain orbit in good well being, SpaceX may even have greater than 1800 working Starlink satellites, a bit lower than 1500 of which can be actively serving clients. Together with 4-5, one other ~270 can be within the midst of orbital phasing and elevating, which may take months.
Extra usually, Starlink 4-5 is anticipated to be the primary of anyplace from 40 to 60 SpaceX Falcon launches nominally scheduled in 2022. As beforehand mentioned on Teslarati, SpaceX’s unofficial annual manifests have by no means been fuller heading into a brand new yr. Concurrently, in December 2021, the corporate demonstrated the flexibility to finish 5 Falcon launches in a single month however did so in lower than three weeks. Following the previous few years of traits, as long as SpaceX’s Starlink manufacturing continues supplying a research flood of satellites to launch, the corporate may simply have sufficient business and inner (Starlink) payloads for 60+ launches in 2022.
The actual query is what number of launches the corporate can feasibly assist. A conservative appraisal of SpaceX’s current historical past would counsel ~36 – persevering with the collection of 21 launches in 2018, 26 launches in 2020, and 31 launches in 2021. On the excessive finish, demonstrating the flexibility to launch 5 occasions in three weeks implies a confirmed ceiling of as much as 60 launches. Within the center, SpaceX efficiently launched 30 occasions in 7 months (Oct 2020-Might 2021), 8 occasions in 2 months (Might-June 2021), and 26 occasions in 6 months (Jan-June 2021) – repeatedly proving its capacity to launch round 50 occasions per yr underneath the precise circumstances.