Shortly earlier than SpaceX was scheduled to launch an Italian Earth statement satellite tv for pc, a member of NASA’s Aerospace Security Advisory Panel (ASAP) revealed that the corporate goals to conduct as many as 52 launches this yr.
Supporting a number of estimates revealed by Teslarati over the past month, SpaceX formally focusing on as much as one launch per week in 2022 meshes properly with the corporate’s record-breaking business launch manifest and plans for as much as 10 Falcon launches in December 2021 and January 2022 alone. It additionally comes as no shock after SpaceX’s spectacular efficiency within the first six months of 2021.
In H1 2021, earlier than main manufacturing points successfully halted all Starlink launches, SpaceX launches 20 Falcon 9 rockets in six months, demonstrating a sustainable cadence of 40 launches per yr. Of these 20 launches, 13 had been Starlink missions and seven had been business. On account of a scarcity of economic launches and a scarcity of Starlink satellites to launch, SpaceX then proceeded to launch simply 3 times between July 1st and November eleventh.
Nonetheless, within the final two months of 2021, SpaceX managed to go from launching 3 times in 19 weeks to launching eight Falcon 9 rockets in six weeks. Additional, SpaceX accomplished 5 of these eight launches in lower than three weeks. On condition that that feat made December 2021 SpaceX’s first five-launch month ever only a yr after SpaceX’s first four-launch month ever, it wasn’t unreasonable to imagine that 5 launches in a single month was a fluke. Nonetheless, the truth that SpaceX abruptly went from a file of 5 launches in ~27 days to 5 launches in ~19 days did really feel like greater than a mere coincidence
That was confirmed about two weeks later, when a US navy official chargeable for managing the Florida vary implicitly revealed that SpaceX was focusing on as much as 5 East Coast Falcon launches in January 2022. It then turned a query of whether or not SpaceX’s plans would survive the one true fixed of spaceflight: delays.
Nonetheless, three weeks later, SpaceX has efficiently launched three Falcon 9 rockets and is on observe to launch one other two from Florida in the previous few days of the month. Initially scheduled to launch in late 2021, the Italian House Company’s (ASI) CSG-2 Earth statement radar satellite tv for pc was finally rescheduled for January twenty seventh, however poor climate pressured SpaceX to delay that launch to six:11 pm EST (23:11 UTC), Friday, January twenty eighth. Maybe lower than a day later, as early as 2:39 pm (19:39 UTC) on Sunday, January thirtieth (delayed from Jan 29), one other Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch a batch of roughly 49 Starlink satellites often known as Starlink 4-7.
Final however not least, SpaceX has already examined and static-fired a 3rd Falcon 9 rocket and is ready to launch the Nationwide Reconnaissance Workplace’s (NRO) NROL-87 spy satellite tv for pc(s) out of California’s Vandenberg House Pressure Base (VSFB) no sooner than (NET) 11:07 am PST (19:07 UTC), Wednesday, February 2nd. If all three of these launches occur in response to plan, SpaceX may have kicked off 2022 with six launches within the first 5 weeks of the yr and, technically, simply 27 days. Additional, over a interval of 10 weeks, SpaceX may have doubtlessly accomplished twelve Falcon 9 launches.
Briefly, whereas only one month into the yr, SpaceX is undeniably sustaining the launch cadence it might want to launch a mean of 1 Falcon rocket per week for all of 2022. It’s clearly much more probably that surprising points will come up, considerably delaying a variety of launches and pushing SpaceX beneath its purpose of 52 launches in a single yr, however even 40 launches per yr can be a unprecedented achievement. If SpaceX really does obtain 50+ launches in 2022, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will symbolize the second rocket household in historical past to realize such a cadence – and the primary to take action for the reason that Nineteen Eighties.
Tune in beneath round 6pm EST on Friday, January twenty eighth to look at SpaceX’s fourth Falcon launch of the yr.