DETROIT – Shares of Ford Motor led the automotive sector in progress final 12 months, hovering by about 140% due to a restructuring plan led by CEO Jim Farley. However the inventory has stalled thus far this 12 months, down by lower than 1%.

Buyers will determine Thursday whether or not Ford can get any of that momentum again when the Detroit automaker stories its fourth-quarter outcomes and offers steering for this 12 months after the markets shut.

Wall Avenue analysts estimate Ford will publish a revenue of 45 cents a share in adjusted earnings and a 6% rise in income from the earlier 12 months to $35.5 billion, in keeping with Refinitiv estimates.

Ford’s fourth-quarter adjusted EPS is anticipated to be its second highest of the 12 months, largely due to improved provide of semiconductor chips, which have been in brief provide all through final 12 months. Ford and different automakers have been compelled to sporadically shutter crops and depleted car inventories as a result of lack of chips.

Whereas traders will likely be monitoring Ford’s quarterly outcomes, they’re extra within the automaker’s steering for this 12 months in addition to any progress or setbacks in Farley’s Ford+ turnaround plan.

Here is extra on these points and different issues traders ought to find out about forward of Ford’s fourth-quarter outcomes after the markets shut Thursday.

A lot of Wall Avenue’s focus for Ford, like different automakers, will likely be on the corporate’s steering for 2022.

Automakers proceed to handle via the worldwide scarcity of semiconductor chips, which some consultants do not anticipate to return to regular ranges till late this 12 months, if not 2023.

Ford’s crosstown rival Basic Motors shocked Wall Avenue by saying it expects its international manufacturing to extend by 25% to 30% in 2022 over final 12 months. In October, Ford mentioned it anticipated a rise in wholesale volumes, that are carefully correlated with manufacturing, of simply 10% in 2022.

GM reported full-year adjusted earnings of $14.3 billion, or $7.07 earnings per share, on income of $127 billion in 2021. 

Analysts estimate Ford this 12 months will earn between $1.54 and $2.35 earnings per share on income of $147.5 billion, in keeping with Refinitiv. That compares with expectations of between $1.72 and $2.05 EPS and income of $126.3 billion in 2021.

Ford introduced a number of particular gadgets and financing changes final month for the fourth quarter that would skew earnings if analysts did not regulate their forecasts.

Essentially the most notable merchandise was a fourth-quarter acquire of $8.2 billion on Ford’s fairness funding when EV start-up Rivian went public.

The corporate additionally reclassified a $900 million revenue on its fairness funding in Rivian to a particular merchandise that can influence the corporate’s full-year adjusted earnings steering. It was beforehand between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion. Excluding that acquire, the corporate’s 2021 steering can be between $9.6 billion and $10.6 billion.

Ford owns about 12% of Rivian. It additionally purchased $415 million in Rivian’s convertible notes in July that turn out to be frequent inventory in June 2022.

Ford has not introduced plans to promote its stake in Rivian. It is one thing being carefully monitored by Wall Avenue.

A number of analysts downgraded the shares forward of the earnings launch.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak mentioned it might be “more difficult” for the shares after the numerous runup final 12 months when he downgraded the inventory from outperform to sector carry out on Jan. 14.

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois additionally downgraded the inventory in mid-January with comparable feedback.

“Ford is again, with sturdy earnings and a repaired steadiness sheet. Shares have additionally rerated on recovered earnings that now strategy cyclical highs,” Houchois wrote in an investor be aware, including “all that leaves restricted scope for constructive surprises.”

Ford is rated at chubby with a value goal of $22.62 a share, in keeping with common analyst scores compiled by FactSet.

Ford’s EV plans might include some surprises for traders in 2022.

Ford is reportedly spending a further $10 billion to $20 billion over the following 5 to 10 years changing factories worldwide to electric-vehicle manufacturing from making gasoline-powered vehicles, Bloomberg Information wrote Tuesday.

Including one other $10 billion to $20 billion over the following decade would not be outlandish given automakers throughout the globe are pledging billions of {dollars} for such efforts via 2025.

An more and more essential quantity being watched by Wall Avenue is Ford’s car order financial institution, which was at 139,454 orders when the corporate reported its third-quarter earnings in October. It is unclear if that quantity consists of its standard Bronco SUV, that are within the tens of hundreds, an official instructed CNBC final month.

Farley has mentioned the corporate plans to maneuver extra towards an order-based system slightly than the standard shopping for technique of sellers having massive inventories of automobiles that clients select from and drive off the lot.

Farley has mentioned the change assists Ford’s income, reduces prices and ensures clients get the car they need.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.