Automakers will seemingly report sharp gross sales declines for March and the primary quarter, trade analysts say, as an ongoing scarcity of recent autos has left car-shoppers with few – and sometimes costly – decisions.

U.S. auto gross sales forecasts from Cox Automotive, Edmunds, and J.D. Energy/LMC Automotive say that first-quarter gross sales of automobiles, pickup vehicles and SUVs had been seemingly under 3.3 million, down greater than 14% from the primary quarter of 2021.

For some automakers, the declines could also be even worse. Edmunds expects Basic Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Volkswagen to report year-over-year gross sales declines of greater than 20% for the primary quarter, with Ford faring solely barely higher.

However whereas gross sales are falling, costs are rising: TrueCar analysts stated that the typical promoting value of a brand new automobile within the U.S. seemingly rose 15.4% in March from a yr in the past, to almost $43,500.

Client considerations about inflation – together with greater fuel and automobile costs – seemingly performed a job within the quarter’s projected gross sales decline, which incorporates an anticipated drop of a minimum of 24% in March. However the largest issue is the skinny provide of recent autos amid a world scarcity of semiconductor chips.

“Skyrocketing fuel costs had been prime of thoughts for shoppers in March, however the lack of stock is what finally depressed new automobile gross sales within the first quarter,” stated Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ govt director of insights.

Edmunds’ forecast requires a 15.2% year-over-year decline in first-quarter auto gross sales. The corporate reported that inventories stay very skinny, with simply 20 days’ provide of gas-powered autos and 21 days’ value of electrical autos out there. Automakers usually intention to have sufficient autos in stock to final 60 to 70 days.

Not solely are automakers nonetheless grappling with Covid-related supply-chain disruptions, Caldwell famous, they could now be dealing with extra provide challenges within the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. auto gross sales have historically ramped up in March as spring climate arrives in a lot of the U.S., famous Cox Automotive’s senior economist, Charlie Chesborough. He thinks that shopper demand would most likely be sturdy proper now – if solely automakers had extra autos to promote.

“Low unemployment, comparatively low rates of interest — the situations are proper for greater gross sales,” Chesborough stated. However, he stated, till automakers are in a position to enhance the variety of autos on sellers’ tons, gross sales will stay weak.

“Make no mistake,” he stated, “this market is caught in low gear.”