Electrical automobile startup Rivian Automotive advised traders in March that it’ll produce 25,000 autos in 2022. It has three months and a seemingly tall order to get there.

By way of the tip of September, Rivian had constructed simply 14,317 electrical autos — that means that it should construct about 10,700 extra between now and the tip of December to ship on its promise to traders.

Rivian is assured it might meet its aim. The corporate has reiterated that steering a number of occasions since March, most not too long ago on Monday when it introduced its third-quarter manufacturing complete.

Wall Road is not too involved, both. As a number of analysts famous this week, Rivian simply had its finest quarter for manufacturing but, with 7,363 EVs constructed between July and September. That is greater than it inbuilt your complete first half of 2022, due to a second shift of employees added throughout the quarter — and because of administration’s efforts to mitigate the supply-chain woes that Rivian confronted earlier within the yr.

The corporate’s inventory is off 65% this yr, underperforming broader market losses.

Rivian has been ramping up manufacturing at its Illinois manufacturing unit at a comparatively regular tempo since early this yr. So, whereas supply-chain elements may nonetheless complicate its efforts, its third-quarter consequence appears to place its full-year goal in vary, analysts say.

In a Monday night be aware, Canaccord Genuity’s George Gianarikas identified that Rivian’s manufacturing price has gone from a mean of about 78 autos per week within the fourth quarter of 2021 to about 566 per week within the third quarter of 2022.

It’s going to must ramp up additional, to a mean of about 822 per week between now and the tip of the yr, to make its full-year aim.

“We estimate that is achievable,” Gianarikas wrote. Gianarikas charges Rivian’s inventory as a “purchase,” with a worth goal of $61. Rivian at present trades for about $35 per share.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, in a brief be aware Tuesday, wrote that whereas it is attainable that Rivian’s manufacturing will are available “barely under” its steering, if it makes “wherever close to” 25,000 autos for the yr, that bodes effectively for its plan to make about 50,000 autos in 2023.

Jonas has an “obese” ranking on Rivian, with a worth goal of $60.

The larger concern, in accordance with RBC’s Joseph Spak, is Rivian’s 2023 targets. In a Monday evening be aware, Spak wrote that 25,000 autos this yr is “nonetheless possible,” however Rivian’s plan to roll out new electrical motors and revamped battery packs subsequent yr may introduce new manufacturing snags.

Spak has an “outperform” ranking on Rivian’s inventory, with a worth goal of $62.

Nonetheless, there aren’t any ensures that Rivian will meet its aim, or get shut. The corporate has already reduce its 2022 manufacturing steering as soon as, in March, when it mentioned that ongoing world provide chain points would restrict its full-year manufacturing to 25,000 as a substitute of the 50,000 traders had been anticipating.

As not too long ago as August CEO RJ Scaringe mentioned Rivian was nonetheless working by means of provide chain constraints, and automakers proceed to quote shortages of uncooked supplies resembling lithium and cobalt which might be wanted for battery manufacturing.

Rivian is predicted to report its third-quarter monetary outcomes — and to offer further colour on the standing of its manufacturing ramp — in early November.