European automakers might see output drop by greater than 1 million automobiles per quarter beginning late this yr and persevering with via 2023, as hovering power prices weigh on the provision chain, in keeping with a report.

Components shortages and provide bottlenecks are prone to weigh most closely on automakers from November via the spring of 2023, significantly if power is reduce throughout the colder winter months, S&P World Mobility mentioned in a report launched Tuesday.

“The stress on the automotive provide chain will probably be intense, particularly the extra one strikes upstream from automobile manufacturing,” analyst Edwin Pope mentioned. Factories might must halt “shipments of accomplished automobiles as a result of shortages of single parts.”

Governments throughout Europe are intervening to blunt the influence of the power disaster, however the measures is probably not sufficient to protect the auto trade from manufacturing halts this winter.

Simply-in-time provide fashions may also face issues as some suppliers implement energy-efficient shift schedules.

The following components shortages and bottlenecks might set off manufacturing stops akin to those who occurred throughout the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in keeping with the report.

S&P had forecast that Europe-based factories would produce 4 million to 4.5 million automobiles per quarter. If power restrictions are put in place, auto output might drop to as little as 2.8 million per quarter. That might be 4.8 million to six.8 million models of misplaced manufacturing on an annual foundation.

For now, some automakers are nonetheless reporting robust positive factors. Mercedes-Benz mentioned Tuesday that gross sales rose by greater than a fifth throughout the third quarter, regardless of supply-chain issues, inflation and a souring financial outlook.

The forecast checked out 11 main automobile manufacturing hubs in Europe and ranked them in keeping with which international locations are finest positioned to endure the anticipated power headwinds this winter.

The Czech Republic and Germany got here out on high, with Germany specifically benefiting from a comparatively low reliance on gas-derived electrical energy and its present ranges of fuel storage, in keeping with the report.

Factories in Spain, Italy and Belgium face the largest dangers, with all three international locations receiving the bottom rating on power self-sufficiency.