DETROIT — Automakers are hopeful final yr’s new car gross sales — the worst in additional than a decade — will mark a backside for the market, a minimum of within the close to time period.

Business estimates vary from 13.7 million to 13.9 million new automobiles being bought final yr within the U.S., a roughly 8% to 9% decline in contrast with 2021 and the bottom degree since 2011 when gross sales had been recovering from the Nice Recession.

Gross sales diversified extensively by automaker, as components and provide chain issues affected firms at completely different occasions, however most — with Basic Motors’ 2.5% acquire as a notable exception — had been down in contrast with 2021. Ford Motor, Hyundai and Kia all reported low single-digit declines. Toyota Motor was down 9.6%, whereas Stellantis, Nissan and Honda Motor posted double-digit falls of 13%, 25% and 29.4%, respectively.

However auto trade executives stay cautiously optimistic that gross sales will rebound in 2023, no matter recessionary fears, rising rates of interest and different financial issues. A typical yr previous to the pandemic noticed greater than 17 million in gross sales.

Toyota and GM stated they count on U.S. auto gross sales to extend to about 15 million automobiles this yr. That will be a roughly 9% improve over 2022. S&P World Mobility and Edmunds count on 2023 new U.S. car gross sales to be 14.8 million, whereas Cox Automotive’s preliminary forecast is 14.1 million.

“We’re cautiously optimistic concerning the future. In 2023, there will likely be an uptick not fairly as excessive as we’d adore it to be however going the proper path,” Jack Hollis, govt vp of Toyota Motor North America, stated throughout a briefing Wednesday. “Demand remains to be increased than our provide.”

The explanation for the optimism is two-fold: Gross sales have been at or close to recessionary ranges because of components and provide chain points, plus demand has piled up from customers and companies after years of tight car inventories through the pandemic.

Automakers have reported report or near-record outcomes in recent times amid the tight provide of latest automobiles and resilient client demand. They’ve banked on sustained pent-up demand as stock ranges normalize, hoping to keep away from heavy reductions or incentives to maneuver automobiles.

The deep reductions typical of the trade assist to keep up manufacturing and improve gross sales, nevertheless a number of auto executives have vowed they won’t return to such techniques at the price of income.

Automakers can offset underwhelming retail gross sales with fleet gross sales to governments and corporations equivalent to rental automobile companies. These bulk gross sales have taken a again seat to retail prospects in recent times and are historically much less worthwhile than these to customers however help in shifting product.

“The fleet demand may be very excessive, little doubt,” Hollis stated, including he believes there will likely be a “moderation” throughout the trade concerning incentives.

Charlie Chesbrough, Cox’s senior economist and senior director of trade insights, stated he would not consider car gross sales will put up any notable improve in 2023 — except automakers let up on pricing to make them extra inexpensive.

Automakers have largely handed rising commodity prices to construct automobiles onto customers, making the automobiles costlier. That, mixed with skyrocketing rates of interest, increased fuel costs and broad inflation, has dampened new car demand.

“That is a type of uncommon occasions the place we actually do not know which path the market may go. It may simply go up or down from the place we’re at proper now,” Chesbrough advised CNBC. “The tempo during the last couple of months has been positively pointing to a weakening market.”

Automobile inventories improved towards the tip of the yr — an indication record-high car costs might lastly ease. And better volumes convey the potential for a “demand destruction” situation, the place provides start to outpace demand.

Many on Wall Road additionally worry that probably the most worthwhile days for automakers could also be behind them amid increased rates of interest, falling used car costs and a normalization of gross sales combine away from totally loaded fashions.

Chesbrough stated there’s “actually draw back danger to the market” within the occasion of a full-blown recession. However he stated the affect would not be as prevalent because it has been up to now as a result of many lower-income and subprime debtors, who would usually depart the brand new car phase throughout a recession, have already carried out so due to low inventories and record-high costs.

Final yr’s gross sales whole stays an estimate as a result of not all automakers publicly launch outcomes. Motor Intelligence stories gross sales had been almost 13.9 million items final yr, Cox Automotive estimates gross sales at 13.8 million and Edmunds and Wards Intelligence estimate 13.7 million.