Within the hours after Sunday’s Bahrain Grand Prix a few of Max Verstappen’s rivals appeared prepared handy him this yr’s title with 22 races nonetheless to run.
The Pink Bull driver gained the opening race of the season by 11 seconds from his teammate Sergio Perez and by a large 38 seconds from his nearest non-Pink Bull rival, Fernando Alonso.
It was an totally dominant efficiency, and one Verstappen achieved regardless of racing effectively inside his capabilities or that of his automotive.
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“Pink Bull have gotten this championship sewn up,” Mercedes driver George Russell advised journalists on Sunday night.
“I do not suppose anybody will likely be combating with them this yr. They need to win each single race, that is my wager.”
On the face of it, it is laborious to argue with Russell. F1’s historical past is affected by seasons dominated by a single crew or driver, and the game seems to be within the early levels of a brand new period of relentless success for Pink Bull and Verstappen.
Though a crew has by no means gained each race in a season (McLaren got here closest in 1988 with 15 wins from 16 races), Pink Bull’s efficiency benefit in Bahrain was sufficiently big to lift the query of whether or not such a feat is feasible in 2023.
But Sunday’s consequence additionally comes with an enormous caveat: as one-sided because the Bahrain Grand Prix was, it stays a pattern of 1 race from a season of 23 this yr. What’s extra, the Bahrain Worldwide Circuit is a identified outlier on the F1 schedule, with an unusually tough observe floor and traction-heavy format that punishes rear tyres greater than some other observe on the calendar.
Together with Alonso’s Aston Martin, Pink Bull was the one crew to successfully handle the degradation of its rear tyres in Sunday’s race, making the win look remarkably straightforward. The subsequent spherical in Saudi Arabia places a lot much less of a toll on the rear tyres, and whereas it is usually an uncommon circuit in comparison with the overwhelming majority of tracks F1 visits, there’s the potential for a few of Pink Bull’s benefit to be curbed in Jeddah.
“Saudi is kind of a distinct observe to this one,” Verstappen mentioned. “You’ve got much more straights, quick corners, and quite a bit much less deg. And I believe right here we have been significantly good on the deg. So I do count on when it comes to race tempo that everybody is nearer in Jeddah, yeah.
“Our automotive appears fairly sturdy in high-speed, however I believe the Ferrari is kind of fast on the straight, which in Jeddah may be very good to have, for example it like that.
“However yeah, time will inform. It is actually laborious to know. We have solely pushed these vehicles right here in Bahrain, so that you simply have to attend and see, and naturally attempt to get there in the very best form attainable, and we’ll discover out all through follow the place we’re precisely.”
That is to not say Pink Bull will not have the quickest automotive in Saudi Arabia — or on the each different circuit this yr — however it could be sensible to mood a few of the extra sweeping predictions till a handful of races have performed out. Sustaining a one hundred pc reliability file whereas avoiding accidents, technique errors and poorly-timed security vehicles means an ideal win file would require a major dose of luck to go together with Pink Bull’s engineering prowess.
“Twenty-three races is a marathon and it is about being constant over the marketing campaign,” Pink Bull crew principal Christian Horner mentioned when requested if his crew might win each race this yr. “Immediately was an amazing begin, however we absolutely count on rivals to return again laborious sooner or later races.
“I have been round lengthy sufficient to see issues change so rapidly and I nonetheless suppose that these vehicles are nonetheless comparatively immature. As groups develop and upgrades come, issues will change.”
Why was victory really easy for Verstappen in Bahrain?
It was clear from the three days of preseason testing forward of the Bahrain Grand Prix that Pink Bull can be the crew to beat on Sunday, however the measurement of Verstappen’s benefit nonetheless got here as a shock.
When Charles Leclerc retired his Ferrari from the race with an engine difficulty on lap 40, he was 24 seconds adrift of Verstappen, representing a Pink Bull benefit over Ferrari of 0.6s per lap.
That was double the hole between the 2 vehicles on a single lap in qualifying — which stood at 0.297s – underlining the actual fact the Ferrari had extreme tyre degradation relative to the Pink Bull in Bahrain. That concept was backed up by Carlos Sainz’s lack of tempo within the closing stint of the race, when he misplaced the ultimate podium place to Alonso regardless of having held a 0.2s benefit over the Aston Martin in qualifying the day earlier than.
Within the information that rear tyre degradation can be a key think about Sunday’s race, and with the boldness that it had single-lap efficiency to spare, Pink Bull adopted a automotive setup that protected the rear tyres within the race, even when it meant sacrificing some tempo in qualifying.
“The one-lap efficiency and efficiency throughout a race may be very totally different in stability necessities,” Verstappen mentioned. “So even after I mentioned earlier than in Friday follow that I used to be sad with the long-run efficiency, my lengthy runs have been nonetheless OK. So I am probably not shocked [by the performance], simply in fact glad that it labored out like this.”
The Pink Bull’s capacity to take care of its tyres additionally meant Verstappen was in a position to make use of the sooner however much less sturdy mushy compound tyre in each of his opening stints earlier than switching to the laborious compound at his closing pit cease. In the meantime, the remainder of the drivers within the high eight had no selection however to make use of one set of softs adopted by two units of hards to get to the end. Put merely, Pink Bull’s rivals would not have been in a position to make the identical tyre technique work with out going through a disastrous efficiency drop off.
“We centered somewhat extra on the race [with the setup] than we did on quali and that paid us dividends in the present day,” Horner mentioned. “So we have been in a position to run on the softer compound, significantly within the center a part of the race and nonetheless have the sturdiness.”
Maybe the largest concern for Pink Bull’s rivals is that Verstappen by no means actually pushed the boundaries of his automotive. Together with his rivals turning into smaller in his mirrors with every passing lap, he was in a position to take it comparatively straightforward on Sunday, that means the true potential of the Pink Bull stays a thriller.
Will Pink Bull face any critical competitors this yr?
Pink Bull’s spectacular efficiency on the opening race was solely half the story in Bahrain. Whereas the world champions have taken a major step ahead over the winter, it is clear that Mercedes and Ferrari haven’t improved sufficient.
Verstappen’s 38-second benefit over Alonso in third place underlined the efficiency of this yr’s Pink Bull RB19, however arguably is not that shocking. Such a spot between Pink Bull and the entrance of F1’s midfield pack over a race distance was not unusual final yr — the massive distinction in Bahrain was that there weren’t any Ferrari or Mercedes vehicles filling it.
Pink Bull and Aston Martin have rightly been lauded for his or her efficiency features over the winter, however take a look at it one other method and Mercedes and Ferrari (plus different midfield groups corresponding to McLaren and Alpine) have fallen effectively in need of the place they need to be. Mercedes particularly has fallen into an space beforehand occupied by the higher midfield groups, whereas Ferrari is already displaying a continuation of its trait from final yr of being fast over a single lap however struggling to match Pink Bull over a race distance.
Considered that method, it is easy to know why Mercedes is already so eager to vary its automotive idea — one thing crew boss Toto Wolff expressed to the media after only one qualifying session. Wolff’s name to motion is much more comprehensible when you think about that the Aston Martin that completed 12 seconds down the highway buys its engine, gearbox and rear suspension from Mercedes and developed its automotive in Mercedes’ wind tunnel.
Being overwhelmed to victory is all the time a humbling expertise for one of many high three groups in F1, however being overwhelmed by a buyer is verging on embarrassing.
“If you take a look at the place we have been on the finish of final season, the place it seemed like we caught up quite a bit, now we have virtually doubled if not tripled the hole to Pink Bull this yr,” Wolff mentioned.
“What Aston Martin has been in a position to obtain is an efficient inspiration as a result of they’ve come again from two seconds off the tempo and grow to be the second-best crew.
“For us, the whole lot is dangerous and within the race you noticed the results and we have been going backwards.
“I am not overreacting; the hole may be very large and with a view to catch up we have to make large steps. Not typical ones.”
Trying on the outcomes of the primary race in Bahrain with the advantage of hindsight, it turns into simpler to attract a hyperlink between the winners and losers of the winter break. After a vastly disappointing begin to life beneath F1’s new technical laws final yr, Aston Martin deserted its unique automotive idea and unashamedly seemed to the bodywork of Pink Bull for inspiration from the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix onwards.
In the meantime, Mercedes and Ferrari have pursued their very own automotive ideas fairly totally different to Pink Bull’s, which have clearly resulted in a slower fee of enchancment. Wolff’s feedback over the weekend point out Mercedes is prepared to return to the drafting board, however new Ferrari crew boss Fred Vasseur stays resolute that his crew’s automotive idea can nonetheless problem Pink Bull as soon as the reliability points and tyre degradation of Sunday night are understood.
“I am utterly satisfied about this,” Vasseur mentioned. “I by no means noticed a automotive succesful to match the tempo of one other one in qualifying and never find a way to take action within the race — then it is a matter of setup and a few selections on the automotive. However it’s not a matter of idea in any respect, so we do not have to enter this route.”
However from Pink Bull’s perspective, its Aston Martin that poses the largest menace initially of the brand new season, particularly within the arms of Alonso.
“They seemed very sturdy within the race in the present day,” Horner mentioned. “It was pleasing to see Fernando up there who provides the forty-something hope that there is life within the previous boy but and he raced very effectively.
“He is nonetheless so aggressive and that the Aston appears to be like a very good automotive. Based mostly on the results of one race you would need to say they’re the second strongest crew right here.”