The COVID-19 pandemic is within the rearview mirror and the auto business is slowly turning the nook on the worldwide microchip scarcity, however a powerful spring nonetheless won’t materialize.

That’s as a result of new headwinds are on the horizon, analysts say.

New light-vehicle gross sales in April had been up 2.3 per cent in contrast with the identical month final 12 months, however the estimated 144,069 models is considerably beneath the pre-pandemic variety of 180,616 in April 2019, in accordance with DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC).

All figures are estimates, now that almost all of automakers report gross sales quarterly and Ford of Canada now solely reviews annual numbers.

“In 2021 and 2022, the standard automotive spring promoting season did not materialize, with April, Might and June failing to climb considerably above March’s whole,” DAC mentioned in an announcement. “Sadly, in 2023, the identical sample appears to be taking place once more with gross sales for reporting firms in April.”

In its most up-to-date World Auto Report, Scotiabank Economics mentioned, “April was a weak month for Canadian auto gross sales [and] households proceed to face value pressures” related to inflation and better rates of interest.

Scotiabank economist John Fanjoy, who tracks auto gross sales, echoed DAC’s considerations in regards to the spring market.

“April’s gross sales numbers … contracted 1.2 per cent on a seasonally adjusted foundation to the tempo of a 1.6-million seasonally adjusted annual gross sales fee — which, ought to Might and June yield comparable outcomes, can be beneath our forecast” for the second quarter, Fanjoy wrote in an e-mail to Automotive Information Canada.

YEAR-END THREAT: STRIKE

Sam Fiorani, vice-president of world automobile forecasting at U.S.-based AutoForecast Options, additionally warned of potential bother even additional down the street in 2023.

“Except for any further supply-chain disruptions, the pending Unifor [and UAW] contract negotiations may upset Canadian gross sales within the fourth quarter,” Fiorani advised Automotive Information Canada.

“If the negotiations are as contentious as they’ve been marketed, plant strikes are fully attainable late in quarter three, slowing deliveries of autos and stalling this gross sales restoration within the final quarter of this 12 months.”

THERE WERE BRIGHT SPOTS

However it wasn’t all doom and gloom in April.

DAC mentioned auto gross sales have managed to put up six consecutive months of proportion will increase 12 months over 12 months. Scotiabank additionally famous that growing international auto manufacturing is “serving to alleviate some pressures from the provision aspect.”

In the meantime, Fiorani mentioned Canadian gross sales for April had been “about 5 per cent higher than anticipated” and an “enchancment over final April.”

“With gross sales coming in that near expectations, the AFS outlook for 2023 stays at 1.64 million models [sold],” he mentioned.

Scotiabank mentioned its outlook “stays unchanged in the interim at 1.7 million gross sales in 2023, earlier than growing to 1.83 million in 2024 as inflation and charges pressures ease.”

40-PER-CENT INCREASE FOR HONDA

Honda was the largest particular person gainer among the many handful of automakers that also report month-to-month. April gross sales totaled 12,194, up 40 per cent from year-ago totals.

The Honda model did many of the lifting, with gross sales up 45.7 per cent to 11,310. Acura gross sales had been down 7.3 per cent to 884.

Toyota noticed gross sales dip 3.5 per cent to 19,616. Nevertheless, its luxurious Lexus model had its greatest month ever, promoting 3,061 autos, up 21.1 per cent over a 12 months in the past.

In a information launch, Toyota Canada mentioned it posted record-setting gross sales of electrified autos in April. Electrified autos accounted for nearly half of whole gross sales, and “each Toyota and Lexus divisions noticed file electrified-vehicle uptake final month,” the automaker mentioned.

Toyota mentioned electrified autos represented 48.2 per cent of all models bought in April; main the best way for the Toyota model had been the RAV4 Hybrid, Corolla Hybrid, Highlander Hybrid and Tundra Hybrid.

Electrified autos represented 47 per cent of all Lexus models bought in April, with the NX Hybrid, NX PHEV and RX Hybrid all setting month-to-month gross sales information. Nevertheless, the automaker didn’t present numbers by quantity.