Automakers who confronted skyrocketing costs for lithium and different battery metals final 12 months may more and more undertake sodium-based cells sooner or later, serving to to alleviate strains on uncooked supplies as gross sales of electrical automobiles surge, in keeping with BloombergNEF.

In a brand new evaluation of the know-how, BloombergNEF mentioned it expects sodium to take market share from the most affordable, lowest-range finish of the automotive market in China, and that by 2035 it may displace about 272,000 tons of demand for lithium.

That’s projected to account for about 7 p.c of the general market that 12 months. If protracted lithium shortages emerge, the swap may very well be far more aggressive, BNEF mentioned within the report printed Thursday.

“Sodium-ion batteries are an alternate know-how that may launch some strain on lithium’s advanced and rising provide chain,” BloombergNEF analysts mentioned within the report. “Whereas the relative share of sodium-ion within the base case could look small, absolutely the development could be very important, which is a consequence of how rapidly the entire market is rising.”

Sodium’s attraction stems from its abundance in rock salts and brines all over the world however lagged different battery metals when it comes to efficiency. China’s roll out of low-cost EVs primarily based on sodium-based cells may symbolize one thing of a watershed second for the know-how.

Whereas broad commercialization may nonetheless be a number of years away, the promise of sodium-based batteries has sparked widespread dialogue about whether or not they may grow to be standard sufficient to assist alleviate shortages of lithium as a requirement surge in mainstream and high-end EVs continues.

In an excessive situation, if lithium miners fail to maintain tempo as consumption surges with the following era of high-end batteries, substitution for sodium within the mass automotive market may cut back general lithium demand by 37 p.c, the equal of 1.4 million tons by 2035, BNEF mentioned.

Whereas that would contain a significant supply-chain overhaul, the widespread adoption of low-cost lithium-iron-phosphate batteries over the previous few years gives an illustration of how rapidly new battery applied sciences could be adopted in response to rising uncooked materials prices, they mentioned.

“BNEF expects that sodium-ion’s vitality density in 2025 will likely be comparable with that of LFP within the early 2020s, when LFP took a major share of world battery demand.”

With each provide and demand for battery metals rising at a breakneck tempo, forecasting the trail of future development within the trade has confirmed a difficult and contentious pursuit.

Technical breakthroughs in each battery chemistries and extraction methods may have main knock-on penalties available in the market inside the subsequent few years, main some analysts to forecast huge rallies whereas others — like Goldman Sachs Group — say there isn’t any finish in sight to a latest hunch in costs.

Already, the potential success of sodium-ion batteries is changing into too huge to disregard for shoppers who might want to resolve who is correct.

“Going ahead, I refuse to purchase a single piece of analysis from any lithium evaluation firm that doesn’t have an affordable and pragmatic view of sodium-ion of their EV forecast,” George Heppel, BASF SE’s business head for battery metals, mentioned on Twitter in April as CATL introduced its first deal to produce sodium cells to a Chinese language automaker.

“Proper now, that appears to be most of them,” Heppel mentioned.