Vietnamese electrical car maker VinFast’s formidable plan to ship as many as 50,000 automobiles this 12 months is “unrealistic,” in response to one analyst.

VinFast mentioned it expects to ship 40,000 to 50,000 automobiles in 2023 regardless of a weak world economic system. That is virtually seven occasions the 7,400 EVs it bought final 12 months, all in Vietnam.

The corporate delivered solely 11,315 automobiles within the first half of this 12 months, of which 7,100 have been bought to Inexperienced and Good Mobility, a Vietnamese taxi firm managed by father or mother Vingroup, the agency mentioned throughout its second-quarter earnings name on Sept. 21. In April, Inexperienced SM launched a pure EV taxi service in Vietnam with VinFast fashions.

Shares of Vingroup, one of many largest conglomerates in Vietnam, closed at 45,200 Vietnamese dong ($1.85) on Wednesday, its lowest degree since November 2017, in response to Refinitiv knowledge.

“Greater than 50% of EV quantity throughout 1H2023 have been to a associated firm whereas U.S. quantity was lower than 200 models elevating critical considerations over demand for VinFast’s EVs,” Shifara Samsudeen, fairness analyst at LightStream Analysis, mentioned in a report revealed on SmartKarma.

By June, solely 137 VinFast EVs — all VF8 SUVs— have been registered within the U.S., in response to automotive knowledge supplier S&P World Mobility which CNBC confirmed.

In the meantime, U.S. rival Tesla and China’s XPeng delivered 889,015 and 300,145 electrical automobiles, respectively, in the course of the first half of the 12 months.

“VinFast’s formidable EV plan appears unrealistic. It appears unlikely for VinFast to fulfill its 50,000 EV goal for 2023 and our revised forecast suggests there’s additional draw back regardless of shares dropping greater than 50% vs IPO,” mentioned Samsudeen.

In response to CNBC’s request for remark, VinFast mentioned it’s “ramping up manufacturing to make sure supply targets in worldwide markets.”

“Moreover, VinFast will quickly broaden to Southeast Asian and Center Jap markets quickly, which can even increase our manufacturing,” the corporate informed CNBC.

VinFast, which has but to make a revenue, started buying and selling on the Nasdaq on Aug. 15. Its share worth soared greater than 250% on the primary day of buying and selling, however has since dropped greater than 60%.

VinFast has been ramping up its enlargement exterior of Vietnam this 12 months, in a bid to compete with automakers globally.

“Now we have established our operational services, together with gross sales community in Vietnam, North America and Europe, and shifting ahead, we plan to broaden our protection to Asia-Pacific, Center East and different potential markets globally,” VinFast CEO Lê Thị Thu Thủy mentioned in the course of the agency’s second quarter earnings name.

“Now we have formidable plans to ship seven fashions in Vietnam, North America, Europe and Asia over 2023 and 2024, reminiscent of delivering the VF9 in North America by the tip of the 12 months, in addition to concentrating on first supply of the – the VX6 later this 12 months and the – the VX7 and VF3 in 2024,” mentioned Lê.

As VinFast expands it must compete not solely with EV makers like Tesla, but additionally conventional automakers more and more specializing in hybrids and EVs. VinFast broke floor at its North Carolina manufacturing unit in July and mentioned that the ability can produce as much as 150,000 automobiles a 12 months within the first part.

Nevertheless, its U.S. enlargement has confronted hurdles together with delayed deliveries of the VF8 to its first prospects and the opening of its North Carolina plant postponed till 2025.

“U.S. gross sales aren’t anticipated to enhance any time quickly. The reputational points brought on by the launch of the VF8 is not going to be solved by the VF9,” David Byrne, analyst at world funding analysis agency Third Bridge, mentioned in a observe.

VinFast mentioned its U.S. gross sales are enhancing, including that “with the upcoming addition of sellers, we are going to possible exceed our plan for the 12 months.”

Analysts additionally famous that VinFast’s fashions are usually not competitively priced. For instance, VinFast’s VF9 mannequin is priced from $83,000 whereas the Tesla Mannequin X is priced from $68,590 after federal tax credit score and gasoline financial savings.

Moreover, Tesla passenger automobiles qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit score within the U.S., whereas VinFast automobiles are at the moment not eligible as they aren’t constructed within the U.S.

“[This suggests] that it could not as simple as mentioned to extend the gross sales quantity within the U.S. and different international markets given extra established EV fashions are promoting for a lower cost,” mentioned Samsudeen.

“Our consultants questioned the pricing choice of VF9 within the US market. It’s dearer than key, extra established opponents such because the Kia EV9 and the Tesla Mannequin X, regardless of the platform being inner combustion engine-derived, compromising its efficiency and vary,” mentioned Bryne.

VinFast informed CNBC that “consultants have fastidiously researched and priced our automobiles correctly.” It additionally mentioned it doesn’t take into account a few of these talked about automobiles as their opponents, with out specifying fashions.

In the course of the second quarter, VinFast posted a web loss of $526.7 million, enhancing 8.2% from the identical interval a 12 months in the past.

VinFast expects to interrupt even by the tip of 2024, its founder Pham Nhat Vuong reportedly informed traders on the firm’s annual basic assembly in Might.