EV gross sales proceed to rise steadily in California, reaching a document 22.3% market share in Q3. However Tesla has returned to its place as second-best promoting model within the state, behind longtime chief Toyota, after briefly eclipsing the model final quarter.

The California New Automobile Sellers’ Affiliation releases its “California Auto Outlook” every quarter, breaking down tendencies within the auto trade for the earlier quarter. It’s out with its new Q3 report at the moment and we’re going to interrupt it down for some insights.

As has been the development for the final a number of years, EV gross sales continued to rise in California. They began the 12 months at 20.5% in Q1, then 21.8% in Q2, and 22.3% in Q3. So this quarter’s rise was a little bit slower than the final, however nonetheless a brand new document within the state.

It implies that California will seemingly exit the 12 months with a BEV run price of round 23%, which is barely down from our expectation of round 25%+. However nonetheless considerably up from the 9% of 2021 and 17% of 2022. And pure-ICE market share has dropped in the identical timeframe, to 64.6% YTD in 2023 from 71.6% in 2022.

Comparatively, the US had an EV market share of seven.9% in Q3, placing California EV gross sales about 3x larger than the nation’s common (particularly should you take California out of the nationwide information, because the state pulls the nationwide common up).

Accounting additional for Plug-in Hybrids, greater than 1/4 of California’s new automobile registrations had a plug in Q3. Including typical hybrids and gas cell automobiles to the combo, greater than 1/3 – 37.3% – are “various gas automobiles.”

Hybrid and EV gross sales continued to rise in Q3, however plug-in hybrid gross sales continued to hover round 3%.

Complete new EV registrations really dropped in California in Q3 as in comparison with Q2, with 100,597 new EVs registered versus 103,061 within the earlier quarter. However total auto gross sales dropped by a bigger quantity, that means EVs have been a better share of offered automobiles. That is because of the seasonality of automobile gross sales – in comparison with Q3 of final 12 months, total auto gross sales are up 21.1%, and BEV gross sales are up 56.3%.

However one fascinating battle being fought in California just lately is between Toyota and Tesla for prime canine within the main state for EV adoption and within the state of Tesla’s delivery. Toyota has lengthy held the place as #1 model, and the Toyota Camry had been the best-selling automobile in California in a few years till the Mannequin 3 (after which the Mannequin Y) unseated it. This has earned the Mannequin 3 the nickname “California Camry” primarily based on how widespread it’s on CA roads.

Whereas Tesla had unseated Toyota for the best-selling mannequin, Toyota nonetheless maintained place of top-selling model, because the latter sells a much wider base of fashions in comparison with Tesla’s smaller set of mannequin choices. However in Q2, we seen that Tesla had narrowly outsold Toyota for the primary time, primarily based on the unimaginable power of Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales, which have been (and stay) the best-selling fashions within the state by a ridiculous margin.

However in Q3, Toyota got here again and earned the highest spot once more. Toyota offered 70,314 automobiles (in comparison with 67,482 in Q2) and Tesla offered 60,061 (in comparison with 69,212 in Q2). That is in step with Tesla’s total down quarter in deliveries, although gross sales nonetheless improved considerably in comparison with Q3 of final 12 months.

In consequence, Toyota is now forward of Tesla by about 20,000 automobiles year-to-date, that means that Tesla is unlikely to change into the best-selling model for all of 2023. However the firm remains to be comfortably in second-place, with a few 50,000 automobile benefit over Honda year-to-date.

And Tesla nonetheless dominates the best-selling automobile checklist and no person else even shut, at 106,398 and 66,698 models every to date this 12 months. The Toyota RAV4 and Camry are operating to date again that they could as effectively be in a unique race, at 40,622 and 39,293 models every.

Different fast insights from the report embrace: continued robust gross sales development for Rivian, which has the most important p.c improve year-to-date at 176.8%; a brand new breakdown of top-selling BEV and PHEV gross sales which exhibits the Wrangler 4xe to be the fourth-most-popular automobile with a plug within the state, behind Mannequin Y/3 and the Chevy Bolt; BEV share of 25.7% YTD in Northern California, as in comparison with 21.1% in Southern California (decide up the tempo IE, OC and LA can’t carry everybody); and a 103% improve in gross sales of BEVs at franchised dealerships (particularly, conventional auto corporations) year-to-date, in comparison with only a 42% improve in BEV gross sales from direct sellers (particularly, the EV startups).

Electrek’s Take

We like taking a look at this information every quarter as a result of California tends to steer the remainder of the nation on tendencies and adoption of latest applied sciences, and this has all the time been the case in EV gross sales.

A pair years in the past, California was down at 7% new EV gross sales, however the remainder of the nation was promoting 2% or so. Now, the nation is at 7%, and California is at 22%.

So if you need a way of the place the nation shall be in a pair years, that is information value taking a look at.