Tesla is about to report third-quarter car manufacturing and supply numbers on Wednesday. 

Analysts expect Elon Musk’s automaker to report about 463,310 deliveries, in keeping with estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. That would come with about 435,900 of Tesla’s Mannequin 3 sedans and Mannequin Y SUVs.

Tesla reported deliveries of 435,059 and manufacturing of 430,488 automobiles for a similar interval a yr in the past, earlier than it was promoting the Cybertruck. Extra just lately, Tesla reported deliveries of 443,956 and manufacturing of 410,831 automobiles for the second quarter of 2024.

If Tesla meets analysts’ expectations that may symbolize a 6.5% year-over-year enhance for deliveries after declines within the first and second quarters of 2024.

Deliveries will not be outlined in Tesla’s monetary disclosures, however they’re the closest approximation to models bought reported by the corporate.

Within the third quarter, because it did earlier this yr, Tesla continued to supply quite a lot of incentives and financing plans to drive gross sales volumes, notably within the largest marketplace for EVs on the earth, mainland China.

Tesla hasn’t given particular steering for the complete yr of deliveries in 2024, however the firm has mentioned it expects a decrease supply progress price this yr versus final. Wells Fargo, pointing to this lack of steering, mentioned in a notice that it is anticipating 1.63 million full-year deliveries for Tesla and third-quarter deliveries at round 440,000, under consensus.

Goldman Sachs final week mentioned it expects Tesla deliveries and manufacturing “to return in-line with consensus, largely pushed by the energy within the China market.” Goldman Sachs really useful shopping for name choices forward of the Wednesday report.

Robotaxi day in focus

Shares within the EV maker are up greater than 20% over the previous month, in anticipation that deliveries may enhance yr over yr and sequentially within the third quarter, and forward of the corporate’s robotaxi day on Oct. 10.

Tesla plans to host buyers and followers at its “We, Robotic” advertising and marketing occasion at a Warner Bros. Discovery film studio in Los Angeles.

The automaker is predicted to point out off the design of a “devoted robotaxi,” which Musk has referred to beforehand because the CyberCab. Tesla may present updates on its humanoid robotics mission “Optimus” and different automotive and AI-driven services.

Tesla EV gross sales and income fell within the first half of 2024, and the corporate nonetheless has but to ship a self-driving system that may operate as a robotaxi and not using a human driver on the wheel able to steer or brake at any time. Tesla additionally renamed its premium driver help choice to Full Self-Driving Supervised, tacking on a disclaimer-style time period on the finish.

In the meantime, a number of rivals within the autonomous car trade have begun producing robotaxis, and working business robotaxi companies. Rivals embrace Alphabet-owned Waymo within the U.S., and Pony.ai and Baidu in China. Amazon-owned Zoox is making ready a launch of a business robotaxi service within the U.S. as nicely.

Tesla model erosion

Some buyer curiosity in shopping for Tesla automobiles has been chilled by the model’s robust affiliation with Musk. 

The corporate’s favorability amongst each liberal and conservative customers fell in July, in keeping with CivicScience. Tesla favorability dropped with Democrats to 18% in July, down from 39% in January, and it declined amongst Republicans to 22%, down from 36% in January. 

Musk — who additionally leads SpaceX, X and xAI — has lengthy shared provocative posts on social media, however in recent times, he is grow to be much less filtered and extra vociferous on-line about his right-wing political opinions.

In July, he publicly endorsed former President Donald Trump, and he ceaselessly posts screeds on X regarding unlawful immigration, election fraud, crime, violence and different flashpoint points.

He has shared political misinformation and deepfakes along with his large on-line following on X, in keeping with reviews by The Related Press, CNN, NBC Information, The New York Instances and others. Earlier than Musk acquired Twitter, now generally known as X, his feed targeted extra on Tesla and SpaceX, in keeping with an evaluation by The Washington Publish.

Among the many posts Musk just lately unfold on X had been false claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, had been consuming folks’s pets. The Springfield Police Division, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and different native teams have all mentioned the claims had been baseless.

It stays to be seen whether or not left-leaning clients’ view of Musk will weigh on deliveries this yr. Pew Analysis has discovered that Democrats have a way more favorable view of battery-electric automobiles and usually tend to purchase them than Republicans within the U.S.

WATCH: Tesla shifting larger forward of robotaxi occasion