The storyline surrounding Mercedes forward of every race this season has been the identical: will this be the weekend the reigning F1 world champions lastly unlock the potential of their automobile? But with virtually 1 / 4 of the season full, more and more the query is whether or not the potential is there in any respect and whether or not Mercedes is heading down a developmental cul-de-sac with its distinctive automobile idea.

Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes each wrote off the prospect of difficult for the 2022 title two races in the past on the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, when it appeared as if the crew had reached a brand new low. Hamilton certified thirteenth at Imola, dropped to 14th on the grid after the dash race and completed the grand prix the place he initially certified in thirteenth. Teammate George Russell has been extra constant, grinding out top-five finishes on the first 5 races, however Mercedes’ lack of efficiency has meant that neither driver has stood an opportunity of difficult Pink Bull and Ferrari for race wins.

The hope is that Mercedes can develop its automobile again up the grid by bringing upgraded components to approaching races, however the resolution won’t be that easy.

Why is the Mercedes so sluggish?

Mercedes’ essential drawback is that its automobile begins to bounce on its suspension at excessive pace, which has a lot of knock-on results on efficiency, together with making it extremely tough for the drivers to assault corners. The bouncing, generally known as “porpoising” in F1 as a result of the automobile’s vertical motion is alleged to resemble a porpoise swimming by way of water, is shared by a lot of groups however has had an even bigger affect on Mercedes’ efficiency than any others.

The bouncing is straight linked to F1’s rule adjustments for 2022, which have allowed groups extra freedom to generate downforce from the underside of the automobile by way of using ground-effect aerodynamics. Basically, the size of the automobile’s flooring is handled as an upside-down aeroplane wing, with the decrease floor profiled to generate low air strain and suck the automobile to the monitor.

However as the ground generates large quantities of downforce, it runs the chance of bottoming out on the monitor and stalling the underfloor aerodynamics of the automobile. The sudden lack of downforce because of the stalling flooring leads to the automobile lifting again up on its suspension, which in flip permits the underfloor aerodynamics to begin working once more and drive the automobile again down. Repeat this phenomenon time and again and you’ve got porpoising.

Mercedes estimates as a lot as 100kg of drive is appearing on the automobile because it goes by way of the bouncing movement, making it extremely uncomfortable for the driving force whereas additionally inflicting uncontrolled flexing of the ground. Managed flexing of the sting of the ground may, in idea, be useful to assist enhance the bottom impact, however Mercedes insists it has not designed its flooring to do this. As an alternative, it’s making an attempt to cease the uncontrolled flexing, which has made the automobile extremely tough to regulate from each from a driving perspective and a setup perspective.

Mercedes’ engineers can cease the bouncing by elevating the journey peak of the automobile in order that it would not backside out, however that additionally means sacrificing downforce. In actual fact, the W13 has but to run on the journey peak it was meant to run when it was first designed, just because that setup would outcome insufferable ranges of porpoising.

Wanting on the Mercedes’ automobile design, it’s simple to identify the variations to its rivals. The W13’s distinctive slim sidepods depart extra of the higher aspect of the ground uncovered, making it tougher to regulate the airflow across the automobile. That is considered one of many causes Mercedes has struggled with uncontrolled flexing of the ground greater than its rivals.

“If you happen to stroll by way of the grid, you may see that our flooring edges simply stick out a lot wider than everybody else’s and that in fact offers it rather more scope of potential instability,” Mercedes crew boss Toto Wolff mentioned in Miami at the newest race. “I believe that’s the place our idea varies.”

Upgrades to the automobile’s rear wing in Miami acquired a number of consideration, however had been within the pipeline for a while and weren’t straight aimed toward fixing the porpoising. The low-drag rear wing that debuted on the automobile two weeks in the past was designed to swimsuit the lengthy straights of the Miami circuit and would have been delivered to the automobile no matter its efficiency at earlier rounds. There was a idea within the paddock, though not inside Mercedes itself, that lowering the downforce generated by the rear wing would assist ease the porpoising, however that wasn’t the case in Miami nor the intention of the improve.

There have been, nonetheless, indicators of enchancment in Friday observe in Miami as Russell emerged because the quickest driver within the second session. However the strong tempo did not switch to qualifying or the race, as Mercedes misplaced a second of lap time relative to its rivals from Friday to Saturday. The setup on the vehicles was a lot the identical from someday to the subsequent, that means the variable should have been both the monitor temperature, the grip stage or, maybe, the swap from Friday’s decrease energy engine mode to Saturday’s race-level engine mode. On Sunday in Miami the crew was nonetheless at a loss to clarify the downturn from Friday to Saturday however was assured among the solutions would lie within the race information.

“I believe if you happen to have been to take a look at Friday’s operating it was in all probability probably the most aggressive we have been at any level by way of the season up to now,” technical director Mike Elliott mentioned. “Between Friday and Saturday we could have made some adjustments and really these adjustments have been pretty minor, however there have been additionally adjustments in circumstances and we have to undergo all of that information, extract as a lot understanding as we are able to from that and use that to maneuver ahead over the subsequent couple of races.”

The lack of efficiency from someday to the subsequent with out an apparent clarification underlines the worrying lack of expertise Mercedes has about its automobile at this stage.

“We have been straight from the start, we’re flying within the fog a bit of bit,” Wolff added. “It is clear there’s potential within the automobile and he or she’s quick, however we simply do not perceive easy methods to unlock the potential.

“It is a automobile that’s tremendous tough to drive and on the sting, dipping out and in of the efficiency window — extra out than in. And dissecting the information with a scalpel is only a painful course of as a result of it takes very lengthy. As a matter of reality, the information generally would not present what the drivers inform us.

“Actually they’ve their arms full with a automobile that’s simply by no means snug, good or predictable to drive. However the information would not present any of those huge swings.

“We have not had this case earlier than in any of the years, that it simply did not correlate on the screens what the driving force feels and that’s simply making it much more tough.”

What subsequent?

As of Miami, Mercedes had not been capable of mannequin the porpoising problem in both the wind tunnel or CFD. Consequently, it has needed to do all its studying on the monitor in observe periods, qualifying and the races. The shortcoming to simulate the problem has slowed the method of discovering a repair and compelled the crew to change into an increasing number of experimental with its options throughout race weekends. Usually the crew will chase a setup within the hope of resolution, solely to search out itself again at sq. one and a bit of farther from the entrance or the grid.

In idea, every race ought to result in a better understanding of the problem, which in flip will result in an answer, but it surely would not essentially imply a fast repair will include the subsequent spherical of upgrades in Spain.

“I believe you will need to differentiate two issues: One is the conventional improve path and the opposite one is fixing the problems that we’re having with bouncing and different issues which can be compromising the efficiency,” Elliott added. “So, the wings that we introduced positively introduced us the efficiency that we have been anticipating and have been a step ahead.

“The experiments we have been doing on monitor making an attempt to grasp the bouncing, we gathered a number of information, we gathered a number of information on Friday after we had sturdy efficiency and we gathered information by way of the race and as at all times, the engineers are pouring by way of that gaining understanding.

“In actual fact, each time we run the automobile we study one thing new and that’s the goal of the sport, the sport is to attempt to perceive the automobile quicker than our rivals. Though for the time being we’re on the backfoot a bit of bit with that, there’s a large quantity of effort, an enormous quantity of labor getting in making an attempt to grasp how we enhance the automobile, how do we discover that subsequent little step ahead, how can we eliminate the bouncing, how can we get again to being aggressive or aggressive relative to the front-running crew which is the place we need to be.”

The upcoming race in Barcelona ought to assist additional Mercedes understanding because the crew additionally has reams of comparative information from pre-season testing on the identical circuit. On the opening check of 2022 in February, Mercedes had not but launched its radical “zero sidepod” design, though it was nonetheless struggling with porpoising with the extra typical launch-specification model of its automobile.

“Barcelona is certainly going to be a cut-off date after we are capable of correlate with what we have seen in February and collect extra information,” Wolff mentioned. “I am additionally aggravated by at all times saying the identical factor lots: gathering information and making experiments. But it surely’s physics and never mystics and due to this fact it’s important to unpick the bones.”

A line within the sand

Mercedes’ lack of efficiency just isn’t solely elevating questions over the design of this 12 months’s automobile but in addition subsequent 12 months’s. The event of the 2023 automobile is already underway and the crew should decide over whether or not to proceed with its present aerodynamic idea or begin afresh.

Attempting to repeat the design idea of frontrunners Pink Bull or Ferrari might sound interesting, but it surely’s unlikely Mercedes would leapfrog its rivals by doing in order it could be ranging from zero whereas they might have over a 12 months of understanding. What’s extra, Mercedes engineers are cautious of ditching one idea with out totally understanding the explanations for its shortcomings, as it might merely result in a duplicate and paste of the identical points over to a brand new idea.

“We’re nonetheless dedicated to the present idea and we have to be, as a result of if we do not imagine and we give the opposite one a 50 p.c likelihood, then you definately higher swap now,” Wolff mentioned after the race in Miami. “We’re trustworthy to the present idea. We’re not trying on the girl subsequent door and if we prefer it extra or not, as a result of it is nonetheless good.

“As a matter of reality, we have to perceive — earlier than making a decision to modify to a different idea — the place did this one go improper? And what’s the goodness of the idea and what’s the badness of the idea?

“That may be a query you may solely reply to your self, which I might be asking ourselves, to get a solution after Barcelona, as a result of that is the actual correlation we’ve got. And by then, we have got to take a look at ourselves within the mirror and say: ‘did we get it improper or not?'”

The Spanish Grand Prix is reside on ESPN2 at 8.55AM on Sunday, Could 22.